1999 · Week 15
Final
Network Associates Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
36
Model margin
+1.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. OAK are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 17/29 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabih Abdullah | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin McLeod | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.