1999 · Week 15
Final
Network Associates Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
36
Model margin
+1.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. OAK are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:01 | 13 | 54 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 1:58 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:16 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 14:07 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 12:07 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 9:24 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 4:07 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| LV | Q2 3:58 | 1 | 30 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| TB | Q2 3:51 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 1:59 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| TB | Q2 1:05 | 6 | 23 | End of half | 0–17 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 0–24 |
| LV | Q3 13:18 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–24 |
| TB | Q3 13:18 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LV | Q3 11:24 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| TB | Q3 9:11 | 5 | -5 | Turnover | 0–31 |
| LV | Q3 7:01 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 0–38 |
| TB | Q3 3:17 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LV | Q3 1:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–38 |
| TB | Q3 0:21 | 8 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 0–38 |
| LV | Q4 11:33 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–45 |
| TB | Q4 10:47 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–45 |
| LV | Q4 8:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–45 |
| TB | Q4 6:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–45 |
| LV | Q4 4:28 | 7 | 22 | End of half | 0–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 17/29 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabih Abdullah | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin McLeod | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.