2020 · Week 7
Final
Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.066
- 46.9%Success rate47.4%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.10CPOE+2.18
- 44.2%Third-down rate45.5%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.68Points / drive2.49
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. LV are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 33/45 | 369 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Miller | 6 | 9 | 109 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 9 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/36 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Richard | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Rico Gafford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.22