2020 · Week 7

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

45·20

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.066
  • 46.9%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.10CPOE+2.18
  • 44.2%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 2.68Points / drive2.49
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. LV are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14LV @ TB13–28TB
2016 · W8OAK @ TB30–24RAIDERS
2012 · W9TB @ OAK42–32TB
2008 · W17OAK @ TB31–24RAIDERS
2004 · W3TB @ OAK20–30RAIDERS
2002 · playoffsOAK @ TB21–48TB
1999 · W15TB @ OAK0–45RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–LV
TBQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:32670Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 9:551077Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 5:371056Field goal7–10
TBQ2 14:51517Punt7–10
LVQ2 13:01828Punt7–10
TBQ2 8:53885Touchdown14–10
LVQ2 4:21615Punt14–10
TBQ2 2:191188Touchdown21–10
LVQ2 0:1719End of half21–10
LVQ3 15:00625Punt21–10
TBQ3 13:011064Field goal24–10
LVQ3 8:16861Touchdown24–17
TBQ3 4:1536Punt24–17
LVQ3 2:231054Field goal24–20
TBQ4 12:431258Touchdown31–20
LVQ4 7:2210Turnover31–20
TBQ4 7:09224Touchdown38–20
LVQ4 6:4047Turnover on downs38–20
TBQ4 5:27632Touchdown45–20
LVQ4 3:08622End of half45–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady33/4536940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette11504.50
Ronald Jones13342.61
Tom Brady111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Miller691091
Chris Godwin Jr.99881
Rob Gronkowski58621
Leonard Fournette67470
Mike Evans22370
Tanner Hudson11120
Cameron Brate1180
Tyler Johnson2241
Ronald Jones1220

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3628421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Richard7243.40
Derek Carr2199.50
Josh Jacobs10171.70
Henry Ruggs III11010.00
Devontae Booker351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor591071
Darren Waller69501
Hunter Renfrow46420
Henry Ruggs III23350
Josh Jacobs34140
Devontae Booker2290
Jason Witten1160
Rico Gafford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-2.22