2002 · SB
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/34 | 215 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 29 | 124 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 4 | 4 | 78 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.