2004 · Week 3
Final
McAfee Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. OAK are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:01 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:06 | 7 | 76 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TB | Q1 5:36 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 2:56 | 13 | 58 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TB | Q2 11:48 | 5 | 58 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| LV | Q2 9:53 | 7 | 33 | Missed field goal | 6–6 |
| TB | Q2 6:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–6 |
| LV | Q2 4:39 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 6–13 |
| TB | Q2 1:16 | 5 | 7 | End of half | 6–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| TB | Q3 11:05 | 3 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 6–23 |
| TB | Q3 9:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–23 |
| LV | Q3 8:06 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 6–30 |
| TB | Q3 3:42 | 15 | 78 | Touchdown | 12–30 |
| LV | Q4 10:45 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 12–30 |
| TB | Q4 9:58 | 11 | 29 | Missed field goal | 12–30 |
| LV | Q4 6:08 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 12–30 |
| TB | Q4 3:22 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| LV | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–30 |
| TB | Q4 0:03 | 1 | 32 | End of half | 20–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 22/36 | 309 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.