2016 · Week 8
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/32 | 180 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.