2016 · Week 8
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutStacy McGeeDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAndre HolmesWRHip· Limited
- QuestionableBrynden TrawickSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMenelik WatsonTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableVadal AlexanderGAnkle· Limited
Buccaneers
- OutClinton McDonaldDTHamstring· Limited
- OutDoug MartinRBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableGerald McCoyDTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableJoe HawleyCAnkle· Full
- QuestionableRobert AyersDEAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:24 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:53 | 6 | 19 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 1:15 | 3 | 34 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 14:54 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 11:48 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:21 | 5 | 73 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 8:15 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:37 | 7 | 60 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:06 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 44 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| TB | Q3 10:24 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:13 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| TB | Q3 5:30 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 3:09 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 17–10 |
| TB | Q3 1:07 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| LV | Q4 14:55 | 10 | 33 | Punt | 17–16 |
| TB | Q4 8:33 | 11 | 38 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 3:48 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| TB | Q4 1:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 0:44 | 4 | 23 | Missed field goal | 24–24 |
| LV | OT | 7 | 61 | Missed field goal | 24–24 |
| TB | OT | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | OT | 10 | 62 | Punt | 24–24 |
| TB | OT | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | OT | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 30–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/32 | 180 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.