2024 · Week 14

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

13·28

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -7

Total

47

Model margin

+6.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.131EPA / play+0.133
  • 41.0%Success rate49.4%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.283EPA / rush+0.012
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -1.46CPOE+3.56
  • 34.2%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.71
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W7TB @ LV45–20TB
2016 · W8OAK @ TB30–24RAIDERS
2012 · W9TB @ OAK42–32TB
2008 · W17OAK @ TB31–24RAIDERS
2004 · W3TB @ OAK20–30RAIDERS
2002 · playoffsOAK @ TB21–48TB
1999 · W15TB @ OAK0–45RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–TB
TBQ1 15:001385Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 8:073-10Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:37552Touchdown0–14
LVQ1 3:52624Punt0–14
TBQ1 1:18619Turnover0–14
LVQ2 13:3610Turnover0–14
TBQ2 13:33410Turnover0–14
LVQ2 12:03744Touchdown7–14
TBQ2 9:2134Punt7–14
LVQ2 7:42646Field goal10–14
TBQ2 4:28948Turnover10–14
LVQ2 0:2500End of half10–14
LVQ3 15:001766Turnover10–14
TBQ3 4:40525Punt10–14
LVQ3 1:5138Punt10–14
TBQ3 1:04620Punt10–14
LVQ4 14:03312Punt10–14
TBQ4 11:46677Touchdown10–21
LVQ4 8:471057Field goal13–21
TBQ4 3:05580Touchdown13–28
LVQ4 1:561040End of half13–28

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell11/1910401
Desmond Ridder12/1810100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sincere McCormick15785.20
Aidan O'Connell661.01
Desmond Ridder231.50
Brock Bowers133.00
Ameer Abdullah111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Mayer79680
Jakobi Meyers710670
Brock Bowers35490
Sincere McCormick23110
Tre Tucker2570
Terrace Marshall Jr.1160
Ameer Abdullah12-30

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/2929532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White17905.31
Sean Tucker34715.70
Baker Mayfield2126.00
Bucky Irving430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton34700
Mike Evans45690
Sterling Shepard46630
Jalen McMillan47592
Rachaad White23191
Bucky Irving11150
Sean Tucker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+5.97