2024 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
47
Model margin
+6.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.133
- 41.0%Success rate49.4%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.283EPA / rush+0.012
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.2%
- -1.46CPOE+3.56
- 34.2%Third-down rate50.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.51Points / drive2.71
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 11/19 | 104 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 12/18 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sincere McCormick | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Sincere McCormick | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/29 | 295 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 4 | 7 | 59 | 2 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+5.97