2012 · Week 9
Final
O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
47
Model margin
+4.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Buccaneers
- ProbableBrandon McDonaldCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableDonald PennTWrist· Full
- ProbableEric WrightCBAchilles· Full
- ProbableMichael BennettDEAnkle· Full
Raiders
- OutKhalif BarnesTGroin· DNP
- OutShawntae SpencerCBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulKeenan ClaytonLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBToe· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableDave TollefsonDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Limited
- ProbableTravis GoethelLBBack· Limited
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDesmond BryantDTElbow· Full
- ProbableJared VeldheerTElbow· Full
- ProbableMatt ShaughnessyDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableMichael MitchellSFinger· Full
- ProbableMike GoodsonRBToe· Full
- ProbableStefen WisniewskiCAnkle· Full
- ProbableWillie SmithTAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. OAK are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 14:10 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:15 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:27 | 9 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:53 | 9 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 0:45 | 7 | 105 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:54 | 11 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 7:59 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 5:31 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 2:39 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:42 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:20 | 8 | 48 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–10 |
| TB | Q3 10:38 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| LV | Q3 7:12 | 8 | 42 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| TB | Q3 3:07 | 2 | 68 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| LV | Q3 2:15 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| TB | Q4 14:11 | 1 | 70 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| LV | Q4 13:51 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 35–24 |
| TB | Q4 9:48 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 35–24 |
| LV | Q4 7:43 | 13 | 62 | Touchdown | 35–32 |
| TB | Q4 3:51 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 35–32 |
| LV | Q4 2:42 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 35–32 |
| TB | Q4 2:27 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 42–32 |
| LV | Q4 1:49 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 42–32 |
| TB | Q4 1:38 | 3 | -14 | Turnover on downs | 42–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 18/30 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 25 | 251 | 10.0 | 4 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.