2012 · Week 9
Final
O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
47
Model margin
+4.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 56.6 points. OAK are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 18/30 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 25 | 251 | 10.0 | 4 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.