Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.063
- 42.4%Success rate41.6%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.4%
- 38.5%Third-down rate37.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.98Points / drive1.27
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 10:17 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 4:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 4:35 | 2 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q1 3:35 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 3:35 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q1 1:55 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| CAR | Q2 11:03 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| PIT | Q2 8:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–16 |
| CAR | Q2 7:55 | 2 | 92 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| PIT | Q2 6:59 | 12 | 68 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| CAR | Q2 1:36 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| PIT | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–23 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 20–23 |
| PIT | Q3 9:30 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 20–23 |
| CAR | Q3 4:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–23 |
| PIT | Q3 2:20 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 20–23 |
| CAR | Q4 13:27 | 6 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 20–23 |
| PIT | Q4 10:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–23 |
| CAR | Q4 8:36 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 20–23 |
| PIT | Q4 7:38 | 11 | 48 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| CAR | Q4 2:26 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 20–30 |
| PIT | Q4 1:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 18/35 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Jeffers | 5 | 8 | 160 | 2 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 13/23 | 94 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 33 | 137 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Mike Tomczak | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 5 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
6.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63