2018 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·52

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

51

Model margin

+2.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.102
  • 48.0%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.194
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.112
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +2.75CPOE+1.39
  • 42.1%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.23
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–0 since 1999

PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15PIT @ CAR24–16PIT
2014 · W3PIT @ CAR37–19PIT
2010 · W16CAR @ PIT3–27PIT
2006 · W15PIT @ CAR37–3PIT
2002 · W15CAR @ PIT14–30PIT
1999 · W16CAR @ PIT20–30PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PIT
CARQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 10:29175Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 10:1810Opp touchdown7–14
CARQ1 10:0531Punt7–14
PITQ1 8:56861Touchdown7–21
CARQ1 4:35834Punt7–21
PITQ2 14:47860Field goal7–24
CARQ2 9:46973Touchdown14–24
PITQ2 5:04475Touchdown14–31
CARQ2 3:08723Punt14–31
PITQ2 1:02326End of half14–31
PITQ3 15:001275Touchdown14–38
CARQ3 8:183-2Punt14–38
PITQ3 6:061158Touchdown14–45
CARQ3 0:1800Touchdown14–45
PITQ3 0:1029Touchdown14–52
CARQ4 14:5562Punt14–52
PITQ4 11:0132Punt14–52
CARQ4 9:26834Touchdown21–52
PITQ4 5:35517Punt21–52
CARQ4 1:5132End of half21–52

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/2919321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey14775.51
Cam Newton2105.00
DJ Moore155.00
Alex Armah231.50
Curtis Samuel111.00
C.J. Anderson2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey55612
Greg Olsen46400
Devin Funchess35320
Jarius Wright33220
DJ Moore45200
Curtis Samuel44180

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/2532850
Joshua Dobbs1/2-300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner13655.01
Ben Roethlisberger3279.00
Stevan Ridley8263.30
JuJu Smith-Schuster11313.00
Jaylen Samuels571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown66961
JuJu Smith-Schuster35901
Vance McDonald44441
Ryan Switzer22310
Jaylen Samuels34221
Darrius Heyward-Bey1190
Jesse James1181
James Conner1180
Stevan Ridley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.86