Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
51
Model margin
+2.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.102
- 48.0%Success rate47.5%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.194
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.112
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- +2.75CPOE+1.39
- 42.1%Third-down rate43.9%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 2.20Points / drive2.23
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/29 | 193 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 77 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 61 | 2 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/25 | 328 | 5 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1/2 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Ryan Switzer | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.86