Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
37.5
Model margin
+8.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play+0.035
- 33.5%Success rate40.3%
- -0.274EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.5%
- -7.94CPOE+3.44
- 30.0%Third-down rate44.1%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 0.77Points / drive1.89
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 10/23 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/32 | 320 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.06