2010 · Week 16

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

3·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

37.5

Model margin

+8.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.249EPA / play+0.035
  • 33.5%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.274EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.215EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -7.94CPOE+3.44
  • 30.0%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 44.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 0.77Points / drive1.89
  • 3.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–0 since 1999

PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15PIT @ CAR24–16PIT
2018 · W10CAR @ PIT21–52PIT
2014 · W3PIT @ CAR37–19PIT
2006 · W15PIT @ CAR37–3PIT
2002 · W15CAR @ PIT14–30PIT
1999 · W16CAR @ PIT20–30PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PIT
CARQ1 15:001152Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:56772Field goal0–3
CARQ1 3:47721Turnover on downs0–3
PITQ2 14:5668Punt0–3
CARQ2 11:5310Turnover0–3
PITQ2 11:45358Touchdown0–10
CARQ2 10:1632Punt0–10
PITQ2 9:14315Turnover0–10
CARQ2 7:5542Punt0–10
PITQ2 6:36982Touchdown0–17
CARQ2 1:5437Punt0–17
PITQ2 1:26548Field goal0–20
CARQ2 0:3900Turnover0–20
PITQ2 0:3235Turnover0–20
PITQ3 15:00853Turnover on downs0–20
CARQ3 10:3630Punt0–20
PITQ3 8:48813Touchdown0–27
CARQ3 5:053-7Punt0–27
PITQ3 3:44412Punt0–27
CARQ3 1:38731Punt0–27
PITQ4 13:263-3Punt0–27
CARQ4 11:15514Field goal3–27
PITQ4 8:29410Turnover3–27
CARQ4 6:143-3Punt3–27
PITQ4 4:44537End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen10/237201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart18713.90
Mike Goodson430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Goodson22230
Steve Smith38170
Jeff King22150
Jonathan Stewart1190
David Gettis1350
Dante Rosario1530
Brandon LaFell0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3232010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall18653.61
Isaac Redman44310.80
Mewelde Moore451.30
Ben Roethlisberger720.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace461041
Heath Miller56730
Emmanuel Sanders45540
Hines Ward38380
Antonio Brown22200
Rashard Mendenhall22180
Mewelde Moore11110
Isaac Redman1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.06