Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
39
Model margin
-1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.071
- 43.1%Success rate41.2%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.04CPOE-0.31
- 43.2%Third-down rate31.1%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.68Points / drive1.29
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. CAR are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:07 | 5 | 27 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 5:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:08 | 10 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:55 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q2 10:12 | 12 | 84 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| CAR | Q2 4:25 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q2 2:55 | 3 | 10 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| CAR | Q2 1:54 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| PIT | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 17–3 |
| PIT | Q3 12:29 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| CAR | Q3 4:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–3 |
| PIT | Q3 4:09 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 27–3 |
| CAR | Q3 0:13 | 3 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 34–3 |
| CAR | Q4 14:27 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 34–3 |
| PIT | Q4 13:21 | 13 | 36 | Field goal | 37–3 |
| CAR | Q4 4:01 | 13 | 55 | Turnover | 37–3 |
| PIT | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11/18 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 18/28 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
| Brett Basanez | 6/11 | 56 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Basanez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Eric Shelton | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.52
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.17