Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.036
- 45.1%Success rate40.8%
- +0.016EPA / dropback-0.062
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.005
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.33CPOE-4.71
- 43.5%Third-down rate31.6%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.65Points / drive1.70
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. CAR are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 17/22 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 24 | 86 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 10 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/23 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29