2022 · Week 15

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

24·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.036
  • 45.1%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback-0.062
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.005
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.33CPOE-4.71
  • 43.5%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.70
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–0 since 1999

PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. CAR are 0-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W10CAR @ PIT21–52PIT
2014 · W3PIT @ CAR37–19PIT
2010 · W16CAR @ PIT3–27PIT
2006 · W15PIT @ CAR37–3PIT
2002 · W15CAR @ PIT14–30PIT
1999 · W16CAR @ PIT20–30PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CAR
CARQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:541267Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 5:481290Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 14:121075Touchdown14–7
CARQ2 8:2037Punt14–7
PITQ2 6:2035Punt14–7
CARQ2 4:423-9Punt14–7
PITQ2 3:36523Punt14–7
CARQ2 1:2738Punt14–7
PITQ2 0:4218End of half14–7
PITQ3 15:0021106Touchdown21–7
CARQ3 3:171049Field goal21–10
PITQ4 11:523-6Punt21–10
CARQ4 10:21827Field goal21–13
PITQ4 6:151248Field goal24–13
CARQ4 1:04329Field goal24–16
PITQ4 0:1900End of half24–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky17/2217900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris24863.61
Jaylen Warren11383.51
Steven Sims2199.50
Mitchell Trubisky691.51
Diontae Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson1010980
George Pickens25530
Jaylen Warren11110
Steven Sims12100
Zach Gentry1140
Gunner Olszewski1130
Miles Boykin1100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/2322510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard4102.50
D'Onta Foreman1090.90
Sam Darnold221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore56731
Chuba Hubbard33570
Terrace Marshall Jr.33510
Shi Smith13240
Tommy Tremble23200
Laviska Shenault Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.29