Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
39
Model margin
+5.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play+0.008
- 35.3%Success rate43.3%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.7%
- 29.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.71
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 14/27 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 3/7 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 12 | 39 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 20/33 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Amos Zereoue | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 9 | 120 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee Mays | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.62