2002 · Week 15

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

14·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PIT -9

Total

39

Model margin

+5.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.177EPA / play+0.008
  • 35.3%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.219EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.71
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.086

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–0 since 1999

PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15PIT @ CAR24–16PIT
2018 · W10CAR @ PIT21–52PIT
2014 · W3PIT @ CAR37–19PIT
2010 · W16CAR @ PIT3–27PIT
2006 · W15PIT @ CAR37–3PIT
1999 · W16CAR @ PIT20–30PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PIT
CARQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:23977Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:353-3Punt0–7
CARQ1 7:126-6Turnover on downs0–7
PITQ1 5:38414Turnover0–7
CARQ1 3:3024Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 2:401156Field goal7–10
CARQ2 12:143-14Punt7–10
PITQ2 10:40824Field goal7–13
CARQ2 6:073-1Turnover7–13
PITQ2 5:0935Punt7–13
CARQ2 3:28618Punt7–13
PITQ2 1:02510Punt7–13
CARQ2 0:0500End of half7–13
PITQ3 15:0037Punt7–13
CARQ3 13:1838Punt7–13
PITQ3 11:40619Punt7–13
PITQ3 8:18318Touchdown7–20
CARQ3 6:5130Punt7–20
PITQ3 6:1777Punt7–20
CARQ3 2:51974Touchdown14–20
PITQ4 13:281075Field goal14–23
CARQ4 7:113-17Turnover14–23
PITQ4 5:38315Touchdown14–30
CARQ4 4:121049Turnover14–30
PITQ4 2:3535Punt14–30
CARQ4 0:20317End of half14–30

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete14/2711210
Chris Weinke3/71401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Muhsin Muhammad12020.00
Dee Brown8192.41
Nick Goings393.00
Rodney Peete200.00
Chris Weinke1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith57570
Muhsin Muhammad512390
Isaac Byrd23200
Karl Hankton1360
Dee Brown1261
Kris Mangum0200
Jermaine Wiggins22-10
Nick Goings12-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox20/3320911
Antwaan Randle El1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis18734.12
Amos Zereoue14402.90
Antwaan Randle El2105.00
Hines Ward122.00
Tommy Maddox100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress691201
Hines Ward38390
Amos Zereoue67310
Jerome Bettis1190
Jerame Tuman1260
Antwaan Randle El1150
Terance Mathis0100
Lee Mays0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.62