Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.007
- 48.4%Success rate44.6%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.59CPOE-1.27
- 45.6%Third-down rate41.1%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.26Points / drive1.63
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. CAR are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/30 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 147 | 7.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 118 | 11.8 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 10 | 90 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Brown | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 24/35 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 5/6 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 8 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 7 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.04