2014 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

37·19

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.007
  • 48.4%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +5.59CPOE-1.27
  • 45.6%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.63
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–0 since 1999

PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. CAR are 0-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15PIT @ CAR24–16PIT
2018 · W10CAR @ PIT21–52PIT
2010 · W16CAR @ PIT3–27PIT
2006 · W15PIT @ CAR37–3PIT
2002 · W15CAR @ PIT14–30PIT
1999 · W16CAR @ PIT20–30PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CAR
PITQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:35858Field goal0–3
PITQ1 6:40414Punt0–3
CARQ1 4:5137Punt0–3
PITQ1 2:3869Field goal3–3
CARQ1 0:0749Punt3–3
PITQ2 13:371591Field goal6–3
CARQ2 5:371046Punt6–3
PITQ2 1:35649Field goal9–3
CARQ3 15:00712Turnover9–3
PITQ3 12:32413Touchdown16–3
CARQ3 11:021253Field goal16–6
PITQ3 6:218100Touchdown23–6
CARQ3 2:22780Touchdown23–13
PITQ4 13:2839Touchdown30–13
CARQ4 11:0044Punt30–13
PITQ4 10:07898Touchdown37–13
CARQ4 5:38680Touchdown37–19
PITQ4 3:53542End of half37–19

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3019620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell211477.00
LeGarrette Blount1011811.81
Ben Roethlisberger111.00
Bruce Gradkowski2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown1010902
Heath Miller45510
Markus Wheaton45350
Justin Brown24100
Le'Veon Bell24100
Will Johnson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton24/3525010
Derek Anderson5/68010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart5316.20
Cam Newton273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin8111151
Greg Olsen57691
Corey Brown79660
Brenton Bersin11290
Jonathan Stewart33190
Jason Avant26120
Darrin Reaves0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.04