2000 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 15 games played. Raiders produced the widest margin at 43 points; the tightest finish was Jaguars at Giants, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Broncos start Gus Frerotte rather than Brian Griese, which the model treats as worth about 8.6 points against them.
Bills start Doug Flutie rather than Rob Johnson, which the model treats as worth about 6.1 points for them.
Lions start Stoney Case rather than Charlie Batch, which the model treats as worth about 5.4 points against them.
Bears start Shane Matthews rather than Cade McNown, which the model treats as worth about 0.6 points for them.
Colts lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.123, 0.021 clear of second.
Ravens have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.217 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Rams at Saints, where it rates Saints about 9.3 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
