2001 · Week 1

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

6·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRavens
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.088
  • 39.4%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.033EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.28
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CHI @ BAL16–30BAL
2021 · W11BAL @ CHI16–13BAL
2017 · W6CHI @ BAL27–24CHI
2013 · W11BAL @ CHI20–23CHI
2009 · W15CHI @ BAL7–31BAL
2005 · W7BAL @ CHI6–10CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BAL
CHIQ1 15:001370Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:27543Missed field goal3–0
CHIQ1 3:3969Punt3–0
BALQ1 0:56621Punt3–0
CHIQ2 13:281555Missed field goal3–0
BALQ2 7:38411Punt3–0
CHIQ2 5:36819Punt3–0
BALQ2 1:06757Field goal3–3
BALQ3 15:00419Turnover3–3
CHIQ3 13:18612Field goal6–3
BALQ3 9:3030Punt6–3
CHIQ3 8:153-5Punt6–3
BALQ3 7:151187Touchdown6–10
CHIQ3 1:4832Punt6–10
BALQ3 0:04734Turnover on downs6–10
CHIQ4 12:49713Punt6–10
BALQ4 8:46413Turnover6–10
CHIQ4 6:5533Turnover6–10
BALQ4 5:24534Touchdown6–17
CHIQ4 2:36611Turnover6–17
BALQ4 1:364-3End of half6–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews24/3913802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen21432.00
Anthony Thomas393.00
Shane Matthews221.00
Glyn Milburn221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker911490
Dez White39440
James Allen89320
David Terrell2290
Fred Baxter2240
Glyn Milburn0100
Marcus Robinson0400

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac24/3026210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen20371.91
Elvis Grbac691.50
Jason Brookins188.00
Obafemi Ayanbadejo221.00
Jermaine Lewis1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail69880
Todd Heap55570
Shannon Sharpe44340
Pat Johnson11250
Brandon Stokley23220
Obafemi Ayanbadejo22130
Terry Allen1160
Jermaine Lewis1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.49