Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.088
- 39.4%Success rate39.6%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 33.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 1.28Points / drive1.28
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 24/39 | 138 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 21 | 43 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 9 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Dez White | 3 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| James Allen | 8 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 24/30 | 262 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 20 | 37 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Elvis Grbac | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49