2001 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 15 games played. 49ers produced the widest margin at 38 points; the tightest finish was Bengals at Titans, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Lions start Ty Detmer rather than Charlie Batch, which the model treats as worth about 6.0 points against them.
Falcons start Michael Vick rather than Chris Chandler, which the model treats as worth about 13.3 points against them.
Bills start Travis Brown rather than Alex Van Pelt, which the model treats as worth about 10.2 points against them.
Seahawks start Trent Dilfer rather than Matt Hasselbeck, which the model treats as worth about 7.6 points for them.
49ers lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.097, 0.037 clear of second.
Steelers have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.148 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Falcons at Rams, where it rates Falcons about 4.8 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
