Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.052
- 38.5%Success rate42.5%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.10CPOE-1.33
- 34.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.22Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8/16 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 36 | 167 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Sims | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tanner Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/41 | 180 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Vince Mayle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.06