2017 · Week 6

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

27·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRavens
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.052
  • 38.5%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.10CPOE-1.33
  • 34.8%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CHI @ BAL16–30BAL
2021 · W11BAL @ CHI16–13BAL
2013 · W11BAL @ CHI20–23CHI
2009 · W15CHI @ BAL7–31BAL
2005 · W7BAL @ CHI6–10CHI
2001 · W1CHI @ BAL6–17BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BAL
BALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:481130Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:14514Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:13612Punt0–0
BALQ1 1:4848Punt0–0
CHIQ1 0:13945Field goal3–0
BALQ2 10:54552Turnover3–0
CHIQ2 7:4939Punt3–0
BALQ2 6:29518Turnover3–0
CHIQ2 3:36220Touchdown10–0
BALQ2 2:5336Punt10–0
CHIQ2 2:073-9Punt10–0
BALQ2 1:401151Field goal10–3
CHIQ2 0:0300End of half10–3
CHIQ3 15:00626Punt10–3
BALQ3 11:4434Punt10–3
CHIQ3 9:42876Touchdown17–9
BALQ3 6:0100Touchdown17–10
CHIQ3 5:4730Punt17–10
BALQ3 4:12413Punt17–10
CHIQ3 2:27418Turnover17–10
BALQ3 0:24931Field goal17–13
CHIQ4 11:2658Turnover17–13
BALQ4 9:21722Opp touchdown24–13
BALQ4 5:08939Field goal24–16
CHIQ4 2:5637Opp touchdown24–24
CHIQ4 1:3748Punt24–24
BALQ4 0:12116End of half24–24
CHIOT522Punt24–24
BALOT38Punt24–24
CHIOT771Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky8/1611310
Tarik Cohen1/12110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard361674.60
Tarik Cohen14322.30
Mitchell Trubisky4328.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dion Sims24421
Kendall Wright23360
Zach Miller23251
Tarik Cohen13140
Jordan Howard1190
Tanner Gentry0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco24/4118002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins15744.90
Javorius Allen10494.90
Joe Flacco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore37440
Mike Wallace35300
Benjamin Watson68280
Michael Campanaro35240
Javorius Allen34170
Nick Boyle23150
Bobby Rainey22110
Maxx Williams1160
Chris Matthews1350
Breshad Perriman0200
Vince Mayle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.06