2005 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

6·10

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

32

Model margin

+3.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBears
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.138
  • 38.7%Success rate37.0%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.129
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 39.5%Third-down rate28.3%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.08
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.167

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. CHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CHI @ BAL16–30BAL
2021 · W11BAL @ CHI16–13BAL
2017 · W6CHI @ BAL27–24CHI
2013 · W11BAL @ CHI20–23CHI
2009 · W15CHI @ BAL7–31BAL
2001 · W1CHI @ BAL6–17BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:3934Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:0748Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:403-1Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:08541Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:37431Punt0–0
CHIQ1 3:561058Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 0:193-2Punt0–7
CHIQ2 14:2244Punt0–7
BALQ2 12:35844Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 8:463-9Punt3–7
BALQ2 6:351271Field goal6–7
CHIQ2 0:2600End of half6–7
BALQ3 15:0031Punt6–7
CHIQ3 13:55826Punt6–7
BALQ3 10:39615Punt6–7
CHIQ3 7:09930Field goal6–10
BALQ3 2:52838Punt6–10
CHIQ4 14:091251Missed field goal6–10
BALQ4 7:575-4Punt6–10
CHIQ4 5:5139Punt6–10
BALQ4 4:1162Punt6–10
CHIQ4 2:53552End of half6–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright18/3216400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis15342.30
Chester Taylor22110.50
Anthony Wright5112.20

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton15/2914510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones251395.60
Cedric Benson263.00
Kyle Orton2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31