2009 · Week 15

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

7·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 32°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRavens
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.058
  • 39.6%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.135EPA / rush+0.031
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.30CPOE+2.29
  • 37.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.99
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CHI @ BAL16–30BAL
2021 · W11BAL @ CHI16–13BAL
2017 · W6CHI @ BAL27–24CHI
2013 · W11BAL @ CHI20–23CHI
2005 · W7BAL @ CHI6–10CHI
2001 · W1CHI @ BAL6–17BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BAL
CHIQ1 15:00433Turnover0–0
BALQ1 13:34552Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:591147Turnover0–7
BALQ1 5:30781Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 2:201973Turnover on downs0–14
BALQ2 8:0531Opp touchdown7–14
BALQ2 5:45846Missed field goal7–14
CHIQ2 1:4936Punt7–14
BALQ2 1:21622Punt7–14
CHIQ2 0:1300End of half7–14
BALQ3 15:00565Touchdown7–21
CHIQ3 12:2400Touchdown7–21
BALQ3 12:16529Touchdown7–28
CHIQ3 10:202-1Turnover7–28
BALQ3 9:2631Field goal7–31
CHIQ3 7:553-1Punt7–31
BALQ3 6:53626Punt7–31
CHIQ3 3:30522Punt7–31
BALQ3 1:5831Punt7–31
CHIQ4 14:5231Punt7–31
BALQ4 13:283-2Punt7–31
CHIQ4 12:3138Punt7–31
BALQ4 10:5956Punt7–31
CHIQ4 7:2334Turnover7–31
BALQ4 6:2538Punt7–31
CHIQ4 4:5723Turnover7–31
BALQ4 4:11511Turnover7–31
CHIQ4 1:49526Turnover on downs7–31
BALQ4 0:1400End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler10/279403
Caleb Hanie2/5801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte20693.50
Kahlil Bell6305.00
Jay Cutler4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett24500
Johnny Knox45290
Devin Aromashodu210100
Greg Olsen1580
Rashied Davis1350
Jason McKie0100
Matt Forte2300
Kahlil Bell0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/2923440
Troy Smith2/41001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice16875.40
Troy Smith6172.80
Willis McGahee492.30
Joe Flacco252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason610871
Demetrius Williams46711
Todd Heap56562
Ray Rice55170
Willis McGahee35130
Justin Harper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.33