Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.058
- 39.6%Success rate44.3%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.135EPA / rush+0.031
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.30CPOE+2.29
- 37.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.57Points / drive1.99
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 10/27 | 94 | 0 | 3 |
| Caleb Hanie | 2/5 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/29 | 234 | 4 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 2/4 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 10 | 87 | 1 |
| Demetrius Williams | 4 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 6 | 56 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.33