2025 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

16·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRavens
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.037
  • 45.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.036
  • +0.007EPA / rush+0.038
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -3.48CPOE+2.86
  • 42.0%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.30
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11BAL @ CHI16–13BAL
2017 · W6CHI @ BAL27–24CHI
2013 · W11BAL @ CHI20–23CHI
2009 · W15CHI @ BAL7–31BAL
2005 · W7BAL @ CHI6–10CHI
2001 · W1CHI @ BAL6–17BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BAL
CHIQ1 15:001269Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:5038Punt3–0
CHIQ1 4:341156Field goal6–0
BALQ1 0:031282Touchdown6–7
CHIQ2 8:1531Punt6–7
BALQ2 6:331356Field goal6–10
CHIQ2 1:06542Missed field goal6–10
BALQ3 15:00756Field goal6–13
CHIQ3 10:0537Punt6–13
BALQ3 7:57971Field goal6–16
CHIQ3 3:351183Touchdown13–16
BALQ4 12:22517Punt13–16
CHIQ4 9:4822Turnover13–16
BALQ4 9:0029Touchdown13–23
CHIQ4 8:13948Field goal16–23
BALQ4 5:061056Touchdown16–30
CHIQ4 2:09764Turnover on downs16–30
BALQ4 0:2410End of half16–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams25/3828501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift11454.11
Caleb Williams3248.00
Kyle Monangai7243.40
DJ Moore231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze7101140
DJ Moore47730
Colston Loveland35380
Olamide Zaccheaus77330
D'Andre Swift22260
Devin Duvernay1320
Luther Burden III11-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley17/2218610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry21713.42
Tyler Huntley8536.60
Keaton Mitchell44310.80
Zay Flowers188.00
Justice Hill122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers79630
Rashod Bateman24510
Mark Andrews33340
DeAndre Hopkins11140
Charlie Kolar11101
Isaiah Likely2280
Tylan Wallace1160
Derrick Henry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.04
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.27