Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.037
- 45.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.036
- +0.007EPA / rush+0.038
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.48CPOE+2.86
- 42.0%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.32Points / drive2.30
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 25/38 | 285 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 7 | 10 | 114 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 17/22 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Tyler Huntley | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.04
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.27