Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
41
Model margin
+9.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play+0.077
- 36.3%Success rate45.2%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.072
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.63CPOE+4.85
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.7%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.33Points / drive1.95
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. CHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/31 | 162 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 25 | 131 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tandon Doss | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 32 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 19/31 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 7 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.25