2021 · Week 11

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

16·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBears
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.087
  • 46.3%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.31CPOE-2.87
  • 36.5%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.62
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. CHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CHI @ BAL16–30BAL
2017 · W6CHI @ BAL27–24CHI
2013 · W11BAL @ CHI20–23CHI
2009 · W15CHI @ BAL7–31BAL
2005 · W7BAL @ CHI6–10CHI
2001 · W1CHI @ BAL6–17BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CHI
BALQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:58964Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 5:5968Punt0–0
CHIQ1 1:5533Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:57830Punt0–0
CHIQ2 11:05544Turnover0–0
BALQ2 8:27949Field goal3–0
CHIQ2 2:11610Punt3–0
BALQ2 1:071055Field goal6–0
CHIQ2 0:0215End of half6–0
CHIQ3 15:00631Punt6–0
BALQ3 11:22816Punt6–0
CHIQ3 8:46283Touchdown6–7
BALQ3 8:0236Punt6–7
CHIQ3 6:17521Punt6–7
BALQ3 5:06116Punt6–7
CHIQ4 14:1844Turnover on downs6–7
BALQ4 12:26627Turnover6–7
CHIQ4 9:1133Punt6–7
BALQ4 7:29617Field goal9–7
CHIQ4 3:411080Touchdown9–13
BALQ4 1:41761Touchdown16–13
CHIQ4 0:2245End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley26/3621901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman16493.11
Tyler Huntley7405.70
Latavius Murray10323.20
Patrick Ricard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews810730
Sammy Watkins34480
Devin Duvernay46370
Devonta Freeman66310
Rashod Bateman36290
Latavius Murray2210
Nick Boyle0100
Patrick Ricard0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton11/2320120
Justin Fields4/117900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14584.10
Justin Fields4235.80
Jakeem Grant11111.00
Khalil Herbert100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney5161211
Marquise Goodwin481041
Jimmy Graham23250
Cole Kmet12120
David Montgomery1190
Jakeem Grant1160
Damiere Byrd1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.49
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.65