Closing spread
BAL -5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.087
- 46.3%Success rate41.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.31CPOE-2.87
- 36.5%Third-down rate34.7%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.93Points / drive1.62
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.1 points. CHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 26/36 | 219 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/23 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 4/11 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 16 | 121 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.49
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.65