2001 · Week 1

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

20·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.044
  • 40.3%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.2%
  • 35.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.21Points / drive1.49
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NYG @ DEN32–33DEN
2021 · W1DEN @ NYG27–13DEN
2017 · W6NYG @ DEN23–10NYG
2013 · W2DEN @ NYG41–23DEN
2009 · W12NYG @ DEN6–26DEN
2005 · W7DEN @ NYG23–24NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DEN
DENQ1 15:004-2Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:3432Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:411488Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 4:3933Punt0–0
DENQ1 3:12431Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 1:09774Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 12:55766Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 9:35745Punt7–14
DENQ2 5:43730Punt7–14
NYGQ2 2:1334Punt7–14
DENQ2 1:47417Missed field goal7–14
NYGQ2 0:0100Missed field goal7–14
NYGQ3 15:00880Touchdown14–14
DENQ3 10:36571Touchdown14–21
NYGQ3 7:584-1Punt14–21
DENQ3 5:5138Punt14–21
NYGQ3 3:46418Punt14–21
DENQ3 1:14756Field goal14–24
NYGQ4 13:4032Punt14–24
DENQ4 11:24577Touchdown14–31
NYGQ4 9:0561Punt14–31
DENQ4 6:57634Punt14–31
NYGQ4 3:521280Touchdown20–31
DENQ4 1:513-3End of half20–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins19/3425830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne6305.00
Tiki Barber10282.80
Kerry Collins351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer57782
Joe Jurevicius59760
Tiki Barber34530
Thabiti Davis13200
Ron Dixon13190
Greg Comella25130
Marcellus Rivers1111
Kerry Collins11-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese21/2933030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrell Davis211014.80
Rod Smith22412.00
Mike Anderson6101.71
Brian Griese581.60
Patrick Hape200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith9111151
Ed McCaffrey67941
Desmond Clark22550
Eddie Kennison12360
Terrell Davis1240
Patrick Hape1111
Kevin Kasper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.53