Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.044
- 40.3%Success rate42.2%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- 35.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.21Points / drive1.49
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/34 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 7 | 78 | 2 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 5 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 21/29 | 330 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kasper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.53