Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.205EPA / play-0.142
- 50.2%Success rate40.2%
- +0.346EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.029EPA / rush-0.235
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +6.21CPOE-3.07
- 47.1%Third-down rate32.2%
- 81.1%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.85Points / drive1.06
- 1.8%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/43 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 13 | 93 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Montee Ball | 12 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 9 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/49 | 362 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wilson | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 8 | 11 | 118 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 6 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.71