2013 · Week 2

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

41·23

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapGiants
  • +0.205EPA / play-0.142
  • 50.2%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.346EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.029EPA / rush-0.235
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +6.21CPOE-3.07
  • 47.1%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 81.1%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.06
  • 1.8%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NYG @ DEN32–33DEN
2021 · W1DEN @ NYG27–13DEN
2017 · W6NYG @ DEN23–10NYG
2009 · W12NYG @ DEN6–26DEN
2005 · W7DEN @ NYG23–24NYG
2001 · W1NYG @ DEN20–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NYG
DENQ1 15:001288Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 10:50662Field goal0–3
DENQ1 7:41842Punt0–3
NYGQ1 4:4037Punt0–3
DENQ1 2:3736Punt0–3
NYGQ1 1:183-3Punt0–3
DENQ1 0:10440Touchdown7–3
NYGQ2 14:22533Punt7–3
DENQ2 11:2243Punt7–3
NYGQ2 9:24632Field goal7–6
DENQ2 6:5333Punt7–6
NYGQ2 6:05732Field goal7–9
DENQ2 2:19751Field goal10–9
NYGQ2 0:47536Turnover10–9
DENQ2 0:0900End of half10–9
NYGQ3 15:003-1Punt10–9
DENQ3 13:26953Touchdown17–9
NYGQ3 8:581245Touchdown17–16
DENQ3 3:08773Touchdown24–16
NYGQ3 0:2528Turnover24–16
DENQ4 14:53536Touchdown31–16
NYGQ4 12:19511Opp touchdown38–16
NYGQ4 10:13835Turnover38–16
DENQ4 7:3337Punt38–16
NYGQ4 5:12651Touchdown38–23
DENQ4 3:5900Field goal38–23
DENQ4 3:58615Field goal41–23
NYGQ4 2:38220Turnover41–23
NYGQ4 2:0068Turnover41–23
DENQ4 0:5000End of half41–23

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning30/4330720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno13937.22
Montee Ball12141.20
Ronnie Hillman133.00
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker913870
Demaryius Thomas56520
Julius Thomas69471
Wes Welker38391
Andre Caldwell11360
Montee Ball22270
Knowshon Moreno33140
Virgil Green1150

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning28/4936214

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Wilson7172.40
Brandon Jacobs740.61
Da'Rel Scott520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz8111180
Hakeem Nicks47830
Brandon Myers610740
Larry Donnell33310
Da'Rel Scott24301
Rueben Randle39140
Bear Pascoe22120
Brandon Jacobs0100
Jerrel Jernigan0100
David Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.71