2025 · Week 7

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

32·33

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.036
  • 42.9%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.30CPOE-1.38
  • 39.6%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.10
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1DEN @ NYG27–13DEN
2017 · W6NYG @ DEN23–10NYG
2013 · W2DEN @ NYG41–23DEN
2009 · W12NYG @ DEN6–26DEN
2005 · W7DEN @ NYG23–24NYG
2001 · W1NYG @ DEN20–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DEN
NYGQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:4530Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:2338Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:08521Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:25667Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 6:54818Punt7–0
NYGQ1 1:5331Punt7–0
DENQ1 1:0034Punt7–0
NYGQ2 14:451182Touchdown13–0
DENQ2 8:461364Turnover on downs13–0
NYGQ2 3:35821Punt13–0
DENQ2 1:043-5End of half13–0
DENQ3 15:00515Punt13–0
NYGQ3 12:431230Punt13–0
DENQ3 7:023-1Punt13–0
NYGQ3 6:04759Touchdown19–0
DENQ3 2:41878Touchdown19–8
NYGQ4 14:08672Touchdown26–8
DENQ4 10:141580Touchdown26–16
NYGQ4 5:1335Turnover26–16
DENQ4 4:47414Touchdown26–23
NYGQ4 3:5132Punt26–23
DENQ4 2:42668Touchdown26–30
NYGQ4 1:51816Touchdown32–30
DENQ4 0:37251Field goal32–33

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart15/3328331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo16603.80
Tyrone Tracy Jr.9465.11
Jaxson Dart5112.21
Devin Singletary221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson612950
Daniel Bellinger34881
Theo Johnson37661
Cam Skattebo36341
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0200
Jalin Hyatt0100
Beaux Collins0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix27/5027920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins14815.80
Bo Nix5489.62
Marvin Mims Jr.11313.00
RJ Harvey400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton610870
Marvin Mims Jr.67850
Evan Engram58420
Nate Adkins23200
Tyler Badie22190
Troy Franklin310191
Pat Bryant1460
RJ Harvey1221
J.K. Dobbins11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.10