Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.036
- 42.9%Success rate43.7%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.30CPOE-1.38
- 39.6%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.06Points / drive2.10
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 15/33 | 283 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jaxson Dart | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 4 | 88 | 1 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Cam Skattebo | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Beaux Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 27/50 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 2 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 10 | 19 | 1 |
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.10