2021 · Week 1

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

27·13

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapGiants
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.141
  • 44.7%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback-0.146
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.133
  • 9.1%Explosive rate5.7%
  • +2.34CPOE-4.62
  • 38.3%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.20
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NYG @ DEN32–33DEN
2017 · W6NYG @ DEN23–10NYG
2013 · W2DEN @ NYG41–23DEN
2009 · W12NYG @ DEN6–26DEN
2005 · W7DEN @ NYG23–24NYG
2001 · W1NYG @ DEN20–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00639Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:21521Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:1230Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:001472Field goal3–0
NYGQ2 13:18870Touchdown3–7
DENQ2 8:56858Turnover3–7
NYGQ2 4:0533Punt3–7
DENQ2 2:25757Touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 0:0800End of half10–7
DENQ3 15:001675Touchdown17–7
NYGQ3 6:481060Turnover17–7
DENQ3 2:47954Field goal20–7
NYGQ4 12:441548Turnover on downs20–7
DENQ4 6:25479Touchdown27–7
NYGQ4 4:37731Turnover on downs27–7
DENQ4 2:5534Punt27–7
NYGQ4 1:49764Touchdown27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater28/3626420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon111019.21
Javonte Williams14453.20
Teddy Bridgewater3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy67720
Noah Fant68620
KJ Hamler34410
Tim Patrick44391
Melvin Gordon33170
Albert Okwuegbunam33161
Courtland Sutton13140
Eric Saubert1270
Javonte Williams11-40

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3726710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones6274.51
Saquon Barkley10262.60
Devontae Booker471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard791131
Darius Slayton37650
Kenny Golladay46640
Kyle Rudolph2580
Devontae Booker1160
C.J. Board1160
Gary Brightwell1160
Saquon Barkley1310
Kadarius Toney22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.74