Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.141
- 44.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.1%Explosive rate5.7%
- +2.34CPOE-4.62
- 38.3%Third-down rate35.9%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.89Points / drive1.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 28/36 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/37 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.74