2009 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

6·26

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NYG -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.026
  • 44.1%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.107
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.61CPOE-2.00
  • 42.5%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.49
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NYG @ DEN32–33DEN
2021 · W1DEN @ NYG27–13DEN
2017 · W6NYG @ DEN23–10NYG
2013 · W2DEN @ NYG41–23DEN
2005 · W7DEN @ NYG23–24NYG
2001 · W1NYG @ DEN20–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DEN
NYGQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:3736Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:4732Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:471386Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 2:283-1Punt0–3
DENQ1 1:011258Field goal0–6
NYGQ2 10:46413Turnover0–6
DENQ2 9:17438Touchdown0–13
NYGQ2 7:173-9Punt0–13
DENQ2 6:1057Field goal0–16
NYGQ2 3:28513Punt0–16
DENQ2 1:41419End of half0–16
DENQ3 15:00550Turnover0–16
NYGQ3 12:13839Field goal3–16
DENQ3 7:55516Punt3–16
NYGQ3 5:181162Field goal6–16
DENQ3 0:31964Touchdown6–23
NYGQ4 10:15315Turnover6–23
DENQ4 9:01825Field goal6–26
NYGQ4 5:02829Turnover6–26
DENQ4 2:4335Punt6–26
NYGQ4 1:39784End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/4023001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs11272.50
D.J. Ware4276.80
Eli Manning133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith711710
Hakeem Nicks46660
Mario Manningham511480
Brandon Jacobs35300
Kevin Boss22220
Domenik Hixon1350
D.J. Ware11-40
Darcy Johnson11-80

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton18/2824511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno19884.61
Correll Buckhalter20512.50
Kyle Orton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall69860
Tony Scheffler46530
Jabar Gaffney34480
Knowshon Moreno23190
Brandon Stokley13171
Daniel Graham11170
Correll Buckhalter1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.68