Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.026
- 44.1%Success rate42.0%
- +0.178EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.107
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.61CPOE-2.00
- 42.5%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 2.02Points / drive1.49
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/40 | 230 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| Darcy Johnson | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 18/28 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68