Closing spread
DEN -14
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.119
- 41.1%Success rate38.4%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.91CPOE-2.16
- 32.5%Third-down rate38.9%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.19Points / drive1.24
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 11/19 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 5 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 29/50 | 376 | 1 | 2 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2/4 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 14 | 133 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.29