2017 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

23·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -14

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.119
  • 41.1%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.134
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.91CPOE-2.16
  • 32.5%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.24
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NYG @ DEN32–33DEN
2021 · W1DEN @ NYG27–13DEN
2013 · W2DEN @ NYG41–23DEN
2009 · W12NYG @ DEN6–26DEN
2005 · W7DEN @ NYG23–24NYG
2001 · W1NYG @ DEN20–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DEN
DENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:561269Field goal3–0
DENQ1 6:5447Punt3–0
NYGQ1 4:3932Punt3–0
DENQ1 3:10541Missed field goal3–0
NYGQ1 0:53780Touchdown10–0
DENQ2 12:30925Turnover10–0
NYGQ2 9:1232Punt10–0
DENQ2 7:27980Field goal10–3
NYGQ2 4:213-2Punt10–3
DENQ2 2:32616Opp touchdown17–3
DENQ2 0:48520End of half17–3
NYGQ3 15:00419Punt17–3
DENQ3 12:42418Punt17–3
NYGQ3 10:53530Field goal20–3
DENQ3 8:08840Missed field goal20–3
NYGQ3 4:13426Missed field goal20–3
DENQ3 2:10622Turnover20–3
NYGQ4 14:543-1Punt20–3
DENQ4 12:451253Turnover on downs20–3
NYGQ4 8:23417Punt20–3
DENQ4 6:10758Touchdown20–10
NYGQ4 4:07624Field goal23–10
DENQ4 0:27129End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning11/1912810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa211175.60
Wayne Gallman9273.00
Shane Vereen144.00
Eli Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram57821
Roger Lewis12150
Orleans Darkwa11130
Tavarres King1370
Jerell Adams1160
Wayne Gallman2350
Matt LaCosse0100
Travis Rudolph0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian29/5037612
Brock Osweiler2/41800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles5193.80
C.J. Anderson9171.90
Trevor Siemian199.00
Devontae Booker122.00
Brock Osweiler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas10141330
Devontae Booker46780
Emmanuel Sanders58760
Jordan Taylor34260
Virgil Green11240
Jeff Heuerman22241
Bennie Fowler38210
A.J. Derby14100
Jamaal Charles1320
Isaiah McKenzie1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.29