Closing spread
NYG -2
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.041
- 44.7%Success rate42.4%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.087
- +0.067EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate39.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.97Points / drive1.87
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/29 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/42 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14