Closing spread
NYG -2
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.041
- 44.7%Success rate42.4%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.087
- +0.067EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate39.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.97Points / drive1.87
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:31 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 9:57 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 7:02 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q1 1:41 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q2 14:04 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| NYG | Q2 5:45 | 12 | 29 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:03 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| NYG | Q3 13:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–10 |
| DEN | Q3 11:42 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NYG | Q3 10:16 | 10 | 22 | Punt | 20–10 |
| DEN | Q3 6:22 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NYG | Q3 2:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–10 |
| DEN | Q3 2:12 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| NYG | Q4 13:18 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| DEN | Q4 9:07 | 7 | 56 | Missed field goal | 23–17 |
| NYG | Q4 5:18 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| DEN | Q4 4:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 23–17 |
| NYG | Q4 3:29 | 15 | 83 | Touchdown | 23–24 |
| DEN | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 23–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/29 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/42 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14