Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.113
- 38.9%Success rate36.9%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- 36.1%Third-down rate31.3%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/34 | 178 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 17/33 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91