Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.070
- 43.0%Success rate46.1%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.039
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.5%
- 37.1%Third-down rate46.8%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.98
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SEA are 3-2-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 22/31 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/35 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.70