Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.070
- 43.0%Success rate46.1%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.039
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.5%
- 37.1%Third-down rate46.8%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.98
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SEA are 3-2-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 11:41 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 7:08 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 3:56 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:12 | 9 | 68 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q2 12:35 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 11:19 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q2 9:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 7:27 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| CLE | Q2 4:41 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 3:56 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CLE | Q2 1:45 | 8 | 27 | End of half | 0–17 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q3 13:50 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| CLE | Q3 8:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–24 |
| SEA | Q3 7:46 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 0–27 |
| CLE | Q3 2:36 | 10 | 57 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| SEA | Q4 13:27 | 13 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–34 |
| CLE | Q4 7:15 | 5 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| SEA | Q4 5:04 | 3 | -2 | Opp touchdown | 7–34 |
| SEA | Q4 3:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–34 |
| CLE | Q4 1:07 | 4 | 33 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 22/31 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/35 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.70