2011 · Week 7

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Charlie Whitehurst

3·6

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBrowns
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.091
  • 38.9%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.9%Explosive rate5.4%
  • +0.03CPOE-4.62
  • 33.6%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.09
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–2 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CLE @ SEA20–24SEA
2019 · W6SEA @ CLE32–28SEA
2015 · W15CLE @ SEA13–30SEA
2007 · W9SEA @ CLE30–33CLE
2003 · W13CLE @ SEA7–34SEA
2001 · W1SEA @ CLE9–6SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CLE
SEAQ1 15:00827Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:0243Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:203-3Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:4138Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:43510Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:141234Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ2 13:2267Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 11:23613Field goal0–3
SEAQ2 7:26414Punt0–3
CLEQ2 5:511142Punt0–3
SEAQ2 1:0137Punt0–3
CLEQ2 0:32430End of half0–3
CLEQ3 15:001150Turnover0–3
SEAQ3 10:3138Punt0–3
CLEQ3 9:294-1Punt0–3
SEAQ3 6:4510Turnover0–3
CLEQ3 6:3838Punt0–3
SEAQ3 5:12858Field goal3–3
CLEQ3 2:331048Field goal3–6
SEAQ4 11:1834Punt3–6
CLEQ4 9:541365Missed field goal3–6
SEAQ4 3:0585Turnover on downs3–6
CLEQ4 2:2231End of half3–6

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst12/309701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington7395.60
Justin Forsett8232.90
Charlie Whitehurst166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice25380
Cameron Morrah23180
Golden Tate11110
Mike Williams14100
Leon Washington44100
Anthony McCoy24100
Ben Obomanu0200
Justin Forsett0100
Doug Baldwin0400

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy20/3517801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montario Hardesty33952.90
Colt McCoy9293.20
Chris Ogbonnaya3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Ogbonnaya55430
Evan Moore45350
Greg Little57310
Montario Hardesty22270
Mohamed Massaquoi12150
Alex Smith12130
Josh Cribbs1690
Benjamin Watson1450
Brian Robiskie0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.44
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.12