Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.091
- 38.9%Success rate40.3%
- -0.035EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.9%Explosive rate5.4%
- +0.03CPOE-4.62
- 33.6%Third-down rate38.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.31Points / drive1.09
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 12/30 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 20/35 | 178 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montario Hardesty | 33 | 95 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.44
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.12