Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.013
- 45.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.107EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.40CPOE-2.23
- 35.7%Third-down rate42.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.84
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 38 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:25 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 5:13 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:18 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 2:47 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| SEA | Q2 12:49 | 13 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| CLE | Q2 6:23 | 4 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 21–6 |
| CLE | Q2 3:49 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 21–6 |
| SEA | Q2 2:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–6 |
| CLE | Q2 1:45 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 21–9 |
| SEA | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–9 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| SEA | Q3 8:57 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 24–16 |
| CLE | Q3 5:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–16 |
| SEA | Q3 3:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–16 |
| CLE | Q3 2:48 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 24–22 |
| SEA | Q4 12:42 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 27–22 |
| CLE | Q4 7:55 | 15 | 99 | Touchdown | 27–30 |
| SEA | Q4 2:17 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 30–30 |
| SEA | OT | 5 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 30–30 |
| CLE | OT | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 30–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 30/47 | 318 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 29/48 | 364 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 37 | 1.9 | 4 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.01