2007 · Week 9

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

30·33

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBrowns
  • +0.006EPA / play-0.013
  • 45.1%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.107EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.40CPOE-2.23
  • 35.7%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.84
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–2 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CLE @ SEA20–24SEA
2019 · W6SEA @ CLE32–28SEA
2015 · W15CLE @ SEA13–30SEA
2011 · W7SEA @ CLE3–6CLE
2003 · W13CLE @ SEA7–34SEA
2001 · W1SEA @ CLE9–6SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck30/4731821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris9556.10
Shaun Alexander14322.30
Matt Hasselbeck4174.30

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson29/4836401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis20371.94
Derek Anderson22110.50
Jason Wright362.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.01