2023 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Phillip Walker

20·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.127EPA / play+0.032
  • 39.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.66CPOE+1.54
  • 32.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.00
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–2 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SEA are 3-2-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W6SEA @ CLE32–28SEA
2015 · W15CLE @ SEA13–30SEA
2011 · W7SEA @ CLE3–6CLE
2007 · W9SEA @ CLE30–33CLE
2003 · W13CLE @ SEA7–34SEA
2001 · W1SEA @ CLE9–6SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–SEA
CLEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:48880Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 8:53519Turnover0–7
SEAQ1 7:56641Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 5:30475Touchdown7–14
SEAQ1 3:22657Field goal7–17
CLEQ1 0:591055Turnover7–17
SEAQ2 11:3534Punt7–17
CLEQ2 9:551260Touchdown14–17
SEAQ2 4:40412Punt14–17
CLEQ2 3:163-2Punt14–17
SEAQ2 1:41748Turnover14–17
CLEQ2 0:2200End of half14–17
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt14–17
CLEQ3 13:18981Field goal17–17
SEAQ3 7:2934Turnover17–17
CLEQ3 6:55830Field goal20–17
SEAQ3 2:5038Punt20–17
CLEQ3 1:221145Punt20–17
SEAQ4 10:42848Punt20–17
CLEQ4 5:46825Turnover20–17
SEAQ4 1:57552Touchdown20–24
CLEQ4 0:384-9Turnover on downs20–24
SEAQ4 0:1400End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker15/3124812
Dorian Thompson-Robinson1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14553.91
Pierre Strong10414.10
Jerome Ford9374.10
PJ Walker6274.50
Marquise Goodwin1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper611890
David Njoku48771
Pierre Strong11410
Elijah Moore25300
Kareem Hunt11120
Jordan Akins1160
Jerome Ford1220
Harrison Bryant0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3725422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III8668.30
Zach Charbonnet55310.60
Jake Bobo133.01
Geno Smith2-3-1.50
Dee Eskridge1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett89811
DK Metcalf514670
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34361
Noah Fant23320
Jake Bobo22230
Zach Charbonnet22110
Kenneth Walker III1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.99