Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play+0.032
- 39.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.66CPOE+1.54
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 1.56Points / drive2.00
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SEA are 3-2-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 15/31 | 248 | 1 | 2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Pierre Strong | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/37 | 254 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 14 | 67 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99