Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play-0.027
- 45.5%Success rate41.3%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- +7.05CPOE-3.23
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.80
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/33 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 24 | 124 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| David Moore | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 5 | 29 | 2 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/37 | 249 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 122 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.06