2019 · Week 6

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

32·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBrowns
  • +0.018EPA / play-0.027
  • 45.5%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.116
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +7.05CPOE-3.23
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.80
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–2 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. CLE are 2-3-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CLE @ SEA20–24SEA
2015 · W15CLE @ SEA13–30SEA
2011 · W7SEA @ CLE3–6CLE
2007 · W9SEA @ CLE30–33CLE
2003 · W13CLE @ SEA7–34SEA
2001 · W1SEA @ CLE9–6SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00418Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 13:01780Touchdown6–7
CLEQ1 8:521069Touchdown6–14
SEAQ1 4:43736Punt6–14
CLEQ1 1:19392Touchdown6–20
SEAQ2 14:54855Field goal9–20
CLEQ2 10:4631Punt9–20
SEAQ2 10:06518Field goal12–20
CLEQ2 7:25429Turnover12–20
SEAQ2 6:1237Punt12–20
CLEQ2 5:02970Turnover12–20
SEAQ2 1:29983Touchdown18–20
CLEQ2 0:22423End of half18–20
SEAQ3 15:0042Punt18–20
CLEQ3 12:32831Turnover18–20
SEAQ3 8:54853Touchdown25–20
CLEQ3 6:00521Punt25–20
SEAQ3 3:37636Turnover25–20
CLEQ3 1:011223Turnover on downs25–20
SEAQ4 10:393-1Punt25–20
CLEQ4 9:48224Touchdown25–28
SEAQ4 9:021264Touchdown32–28
CLEQ4 3:3035Turnover32–28
SEAQ4 2:41623End of half32–28

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3329520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson241245.21
Russell Wilson9313.41
C.J. Prosise382.70
DK Metcalf144.00
Tyler Lockett133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett55750
DK Metcalf45690
David Moore34360
Chris Carson44350
Jaron Brown35292
Luke Willson23160
C.J. Prosise13150
Will Dissly0100
Malik Turner0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3724913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201226.12
Baker Mayfield4358.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.6111010
Ricky Seals-Jones36471
Jarvis Landry35360
Antonio Callaway24220
Dontrell Hilliard23170
Nick Chubb56170
Pharaoh Brown1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+1.06