Closing spread
SEA -14.5
Total
45
Model margin
+9.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.105
- 41.1%Success rate47.1%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- -0.75CPOE+7.64
- 41.6%Third-down rate47.8%
- 41.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.32Points / drive2.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–2 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SEA are 3-2-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 19/32 | 161 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/30 | 249 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 7 | 8 | 110 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 45 | 2 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.85