2015 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

13·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SEA -14.5

Total

45

Model margin

+9.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.105
  • 41.1%Success rate47.1%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -0.75CPOE+7.64
  • 41.6%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 41.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.18
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–2 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SEA are 3-2-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CLE @ SEA20–24SEA
2019 · W6SEA @ CLE32–28SEA
2011 · W7SEA @ CLE3–6CLE
2007 · W9SEA @ CLE30–33CLE
2003 · W13CLE @ SEA7–34SEA
2001 · W1SEA @ CLE9–6SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–SEA
CLEQ1 15:001580Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 8:071648Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 0:433-7Punt7–7
SEAQ2 13:48857Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 9:56831Field goal10–14
SEAQ2 6:311162Field goal10–17
CLEQ2 0:5543Punt10–17
SEAQ2 0:16355Field goal10–20
SEAQ3 15:0069Punt10–20
CLEQ3 11:091138Punt10–20
SEAQ3 5:5410101Touchdown10–27
CLEQ4 14:54971Field goal13–27
SEAQ4 9:021378Field goal13–30
CLEQ4 3:34514Turnover13–30
SEAQ4 2:06314End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel19/3216111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson44611.50
Isaiah Crowell9232.60
Johnny Manziel2178.50
Travis Benjamin199.00
Terrelle Pryor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson55390
Gary Barnidge34291
Travis Benjamin35260
Dwayne Bowe23220
Marlon Moore12200
Taylor Gabriel24180
Isaiah Crowell3370
Jim Dray0300
Terrelle Pryor0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3024930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael16845.30
Russell Wilson5469.20
Bryce Brown9434.80
Tarvaris Jackson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse781100
Tyler Lockett57551
Doug Baldwin46452
Fred Jackson23170
Luke Willson22170
Cooper Helfet1250
Bryce Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.56.7%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

74.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.85