2001 · Week 1
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. SD are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 8/18 | 66 | 0 | 2 |
| Tony Banks | 7/14 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.