2001 · Week 1
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. SD are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:16 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:31 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 11:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:22 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q1 3:47 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 1:47 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 13:38 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 12:11 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| WAS | Q2 9:04 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 6:01 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| WAS | Q2 3:44 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 2:43 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| WAS | Q2 0:34 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–20 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 13:58 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| WAS | Q3 12:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 11:28 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–20 |
| WAS | Q3 8:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 7:03 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| WAS | Q3 5:33 | 6 | 13 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 2:23 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| WAS | Q3 1:37 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| LAC | Q3 0:36 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| WAS | Q4 10:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–23 |
| LAC | Q4 9:36 | 9 | 26 | Touchdown | 3–30 |
| WAS | Q4 4:16 | 10 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 3–30 |
| LAC | Q4 1:51 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 3–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 8/18 | 66 | 0 | 2 |
| Tony Banks | 7/14 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.