2021 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.036
- 47.4%Success rate44.8%
- +0.167EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.062
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.71CPOE-0.08
- 45.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.55Points / drive1.78
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 31/47 | 337 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Larry Rountree III | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 13 | 100 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 8 | 12 | 82 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| K.J. Hill | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 11/15 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3/6 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72