2017 · Week 14

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

13·30

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapChargers
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.085
  • 40.8%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.00CPOE+0.86
  • 32.5%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.9 points. LAC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5WAS @ LAC27–10WAS
2021 · W1LAC @ WAS20–16CHARGERS
2013 · W9SD @ WAS24–30WAS
2009 · W17WAS @ SD20–23CHARGERS
2005 · W12SD @ WAS23–17CHARGERS
2001 · W1WAS @ SD3–30CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–LAC
LACQ1 15:00960Field goal0–3
WASQ1 9:53527Punt0–3
LACQ1 6:581067Touchdown0–10
WASQ1 2:3410Turnover0–10
LACQ1 2:22526Field goal0–13
WASQ1 0:03977Touchdown6–13
LACQ2 10:13175Touchdown6–20
WASQ2 10:02723Turnover on downs6–20
LACQ2 6:26745Field goal6–23
WASQ2 2:23418Punt6–23
LACQ2 1:25881End of half6–23
WASQ3 15:00515Punt6–23
LACQ3 12:26620Punt6–23
WASQ3 9:2132Punt6–23
LACQ3 7:46355Touchdown6–30
WASQ3 6:1737Punt6–30
LACQ3 4:3647Punt6–30
WASQ3 2:333-3Punt6–30
LACQ3 0:5749Punt6–30
WASQ4 14:38623Punt6–30
LACQ4 11:11617Punt6–30
WASQ4 7:2034Punt6–30
LACQ4 6:29618Opp touchdown13–30
LACQ4 2:3638Punt13–30
WASQ4 0:2518End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins15/2715111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine17452.60
LeShun Daniels2126.00
Kirk Cousins284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder36340
Josh Doctson36340
Ryan Grant11280
Vernon Davis27261
Niles Paul11150
Brian Quick1270
Samaje Perine4470

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers18/3131920
Kellen Clemens1/3301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon22783.51
Austin Ekeler44912.30
Andre Williams7233.30
Travis Benjamin12222.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Williams441321
Keenan Allen681110
Hunter Henry46501
Travis Benjamin24210
Melvin Gordon1350
Mike Williams1330
Antonio Gates0100
Jeff Cumberland1200
Austin Ekeler0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.46