2017 · Week 14
Final
StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
LAC -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.085
- 40.8%Success rate44.9%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.00CPOE+0.86
- 32.5%Third-down rate40.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.61Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. LAC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 15/27 | 151 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| LeShun Daniels | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 18/31 | 319 | 2 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1/3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Williams | 4 | 4 | 132 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 8 | 111 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.46