2025 · Week 5
Final
SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.016
- 46.4%Success rate43.6%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.67CPOE+0.01
- 37.2%Third-down rate46.7%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.03Points / drive2.10
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. LAC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 15/26 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tay Martin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/29 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey Lance | 3/4 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 60 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.40