2025 · Week 5

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

27·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapChargers
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.016
  • 46.4%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.67CPOE+0.01
  • 37.2%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.10
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.9 points. LAC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1LAC @ WAS20–16CHARGERS
2017 · W14WAS @ LAC13–30CHARGERS
2013 · W9SD @ WAS24–30WAS
2009 · W17WAS @ SD20–23CHARGERS
2005 · W12SD @ WAS23–17CHARGERS
2001 · W1WAS @ SD3–30CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–LAC
LACQ1 15:00976Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:4935Punt0–7
LACQ1 8:21847Field goal0–10
WASQ1 2:57525Punt0–10
LACQ2 15:001060Turnover0–10
WASQ2 8:50979Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 4:15612Punt7–10
WASQ2 1:35667Field goal10–10
LACQ2 0:0200End of half10–10
WASQ3 15:00864Touchdown17–10
LACQ3 10:5851Punt17–10
WASQ3 8:24744Field goal20–10
LACQ3 5:49838Turnover on downs20–10
WASQ3 1:51418Turnover20–10
LACQ4 14:521453Turnover20–10
WASQ4 7:401687Touchdown27–10
LACQ4 1:08550End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels15/2623110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt141117.92
Jayden Daniels8394.90
Chris Rodriguez Jr.571.40
Jeremy McNichols166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.811961
Luke McCaffrey12500
Jacory Croskey-Merritt22390
Jaylin Lane12160
Jeremy McNichols12120
John Bates1190
Tay Martin1190
Zach Ertz0100
Chris Moore0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/2916611
Trey Lance3/44400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert46015.00
Omarion Hampton12443.70
Kimani Vidal4184.50
Hassan Haskins5132.60
Trey Lance11111.00
Quentin Johnston199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen59580
Quentin Johnston44400
Ladd McConkey57391
Tyler Conklin23300
Omarion Hampton66260
Oronde Gadsden II11140
Hassan Haskins1120
Kimani Vidal1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.40