2013 · Week 9
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 23/32 | 291 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 25 | 121 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 11 | 172 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.