2013 · Week 9
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutMike RemmersTAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDonald ButlerLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableChad RinehartGToe· Limited
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- ProbableEric WeddleSToe· Full
- ProbableJarret JohnsonLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableLawrence GuyDEToe· Full
Commanders
- QuestionableJose GumbsSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChris NeildDTCalf· Full
- ProbableChris ThompsonRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableLeonard HankersonWRFoot· Full
- ProbableLogan PaulsenTEKnee· Full
- ProbablePierre GarconWRCalf· Full
- ProbableReed DoughtySConcussion· Full
- ProbableRobert GriffinQBKnee· Full
- ProbableStephen BowenDEShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:31 | 15 | 92 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:28 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q2 11:44 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 11:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 9:21 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 7:20 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:25 | 12 | 95 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:42 | 5 | 40 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 9:43 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 14–14 |
| WAS | Q3 7:02 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 14:17 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 14–21 |
| WAS | Q4 12:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 11:07 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| WAS | Q4 10:25 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 6:59 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| WAS | Q4 4:10 | 5 | 43 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:10 | 13 | 96 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| WAS | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–24 |
| WAS | OT | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 23/32 | 291 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 25 | 121 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 11 | 172 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.