2005 · Week 12
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
SD -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:35 | 6 | 23 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:40 | 3 | -18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:53 | 5 | 23 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:22 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 2:21 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 14:18 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q2 10:31 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 7:23 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q2 4:34 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:48 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 13 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 10:56 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 9:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 8:12 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 3:14 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 14:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q4 12:26 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 11:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q4 9:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 8:03 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q4 4:36 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 3:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q4 2:29 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 1:04 | 4 | 6 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q4 0:30 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/27 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 87 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.