2005 · Week 12
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
SD -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. WAS are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/27 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 87 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.