2009 · Week 17
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SD -3
Total
39
Model margin
+3.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. SD are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 28/42 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Ganther | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Kelly | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 6 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marko Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+3.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.