2009 · Week 17
Final
Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SD -3
Total
39
Model margin
+3.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- OutDevin ThomasWRAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutLaRon LandrySHead· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableAlbert HaynesworthDTHip· DNP
- QuestionableRocky McIntoshLBBack· Limited
- ProbableSantana MossWRKnee· Full
Chargers
- DoubtfulEric WeddleSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJacob HesterRBShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulShawne MerrimanLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableJacques CesaireDEElbow· Full
- QuestionableVincent JacksonWRAchilles· DNP
- ProbableKevin BurnettLBNeck· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. SD are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 11:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 10:19 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q1 6:36 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 1:40 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| WAS | Q2 11:34 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 5:16 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–13 |
| WAS | Q2 2:51 | 4 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:39 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 14–13 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q3 13:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–13 |
| WAS | Q3 12:56 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q3 9:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–13 |
| WAS | Q3 7:10 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q3 4:10 | 4 | 27 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| WAS | Q3 1:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:07 | 7 | 59 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| WAS | Q4 12:06 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 20–16 |
| LAC | Q4 4:33 | 12 | 58 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| WAS | Q4 0:35 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 20–23 |
| LAC | Q4 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 28/42 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Ganther | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Kelly | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 6 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marko Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+3.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.