2001 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Ty Detmer

14·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DET -1.5

Total

33

Model margin

+5.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.113
  • 39.1%Success rate36.9%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.148
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 0.89Points / drive1.05
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.096

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CLE @ DET10–34DET
2021 · W11DET @ CLE10–13CLE
2017 · W10CLE @ DET24–38DET
2013 · W6DET @ CLE31–17DET
2009 · W11CLE @ DET37–38DET
2005 · W7DET @ CLE13–10DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:0034Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:45834Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 8:55618Punt0–7
CLEQ1 5:59514Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:0048Punt0–7
CLEQ1 1:57650Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 13:2135Punt0–14
CLEQ2 12:07630Punt0–14
DETQ2 7:531066Turnover0–14
CLEQ2 2:03646Turnover0–14
DETQ2 0:31624Turnover0–14
DETQ3 15:00624Turnover0–14
CLEQ3 12:2532Field goal0–17
DETQ3 11:36628Punt0–17
CLEQ3 8:1330Opp touchdown7–17
DETQ3 7:2600Opp touchdown7–17
CLEQ3 7:263-2Punt7–17
DETQ3 5:1924Turnover7–23
CLEQ3 4:32134Touchdown7–24
DETQ3 4:2539Turnover7–24
CLEQ3 2:45312Punt7–24
DETQ3 0:38984Touchdown14–24
CLEQ4 11:25716Punt14–24
DETQ4 6:59611Turnover14–24
CLEQ4 5:463-2Missed field goal14–24
DETQ4 5:238-14Turnover14–24
CLEQ4 3:20514End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ty Detmer22/4221217

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart17714.20
Germane Crowell166.00
Ty Detmer252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton691001
Germane Crowell48340
Larry Foster36250
James Stewart44160
David Sloan0500
Lamont Warren0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch12/2013832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson311244.00
Jamel White3155.00
Tim Couch300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Morgan23381
Rickey Dudley22370
Mike Sellers13280
Kevin Johnson44261
Jamel White1240
JaJuan Dawson1230
Aaron Shea0100
James Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.28