Closing spread
DET -1.5
Total
33
Model margin
+5.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.113
- 39.1%Success rate36.9%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- 33.9%Third-down rate31.3%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 0.89Points / drive1.05
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Detmer | 22/42 | 212 | 1 | 7 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Germane Crowell | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 12/20 | 138 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 31 | 124 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Rickey Dudley | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.28