Closing spread
DET -10.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play-0.046
- 38.4%Success rate40.8%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.278
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -5.42CPOE+0.41
- 33.6%Third-down rate38.4%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.07Points / drive1.78
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 21/37 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
| Cody Kessler | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 90 | 5.6 | 1 |
| DeShone Kizer | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth DeValve | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/26 | 249 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+4.06