2017 · Week 10

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

24·38

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -10.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapLions
  • -0.146EPA / play-0.046
  • 38.4%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.278
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -5.42CPOE+0.41
  • 33.6%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.78
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CLE @ DET10–34DET
2021 · W11DET @ CLE10–13CLE
2013 · W6DET @ CLE31–17DET
2009 · W11CLE @ DET37–38DET
2005 · W7DET @ CLE13–10DET
2001 · W2DET @ CLE14–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DET
DETQ1 15:003-13Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:02442Field goal3–0
DETQ1 11:30410Turnover3–0
CLEQ1 10:02331Touchdown10–0
DETQ1 8:39647Field goal10–3
CLEQ1 6:001349Punt10–3
DETQ2 14:53890Touchdown10–10
CLEQ2 10:2536Punt10–10
DETQ2 8:4045Punt10–10
CLEQ2 6:05521Opp touchdown10–17
CLEQ2 3:551154End of half10–17
CLEQ3 15:00885Touchdown17–17
DETQ3 11:01527Punt17–17
CLEQ3 8:241085Touchdown24–17
DETQ3 2:23475Touchdown24–24
CLEQ3 0:523-3Punt24–24
DETQ4 14:49961Touchdown24–31
CLEQ4 10:463-7Punt24–31
DETQ4 9:0036Punt24–31
CLEQ4 7:013-4Punt24–31
DETQ4 5:17439Touchdown24–38
CLEQ4 4:281554Turnover24–38
DETQ4 1:1900End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer21/3723211
Cody Kessler1/3500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell16905.61
DeShone Kizer7578.11
Duke Johnson10545.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Seth DeValve46700
Kenny Britt23381
Sammie Coates22380
Duke Johnson66340
Rashard Higgins44340
Ricardo Louis26150
Isaiah Crowell1250
David Njoku1630
Bryce Treggs0300
Danny Vitale0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford17/2624931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah11524.71
Theo Riddick4358.80
Matthew Stafford4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate67971
Kenny Golladay23640
Eric Ebron23391
Marvin Jones12220
Theo Riddick33121
Dwayne Washington11100
Ameer Abdullah1230
T.J. Jones1320
Darren Fells0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+4.06