2025 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

10·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapLions
  • -0.176EPA / play+0.071
  • 35.2%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.071
  • 6.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -5.66CPOE+1.64
  • 33.8%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.54
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11DET @ CLE10–13CLE
2017 · W10CLE @ DET24–38DET
2013 · W6DET @ CLE31–17DET
2009 · W11CLE @ DET37–38DET
2005 · W7DET @ CLE13–10DET
2001 · W2DET @ CLE14–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DET
DETQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:461388Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 5:36646Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 3:2032Turnover7–7
DETQ1 1:49421Field goal7–10
CLEQ2 14:17410Punt7–10
DETQ2 12:07434Punt7–10
CLEQ2 9:1239Punt7–10
DETQ2 7:363-1Punt7–10
CLEQ2 5:59311Turnover7–10
DETQ2 4:2635Touchdown7–17
CLEQ2 3:00413Punt7–17
DETQ2 0:55639Field goal7–20
CLEQ2 0:0800End of half7–20
CLEQ3 15:00816Punt7–20
DETQ3 12:30512Turnover7–20
CLEQ3 10:16727Field goal10–20
DETQ3 6:4436Punt10–20
CLEQ3 5:15751Missed field goal10–20
DETQ3 1:25531Turnover on downs10–20
CLEQ4 14:5033Opp touchdown10–27
CLEQ4 13:4033Punt10–27
DETQ4 12:48630Punt10–27
CLEQ4 9:00514Turnover10–27
DETQ4 7:02725Touchdown10–34
CLEQ4 4:0433Punt10–34
DETQ4 2:25211End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/3418402
Dillon Gabriel0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins21823.91
Harold Fannin Jr.111.00
Joe Flacco3-1-0.30
Jerome Ford1-1-1.00
Dylan Sampson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Bond36580
Jerry Jeudy39480
Quinshon Judkins44330
Harold Fannin Jr.26240
David Njoku23110
Cedric Tillman1260
Jerome Ford1240
Blake Whiteheart0100
Dylan Sampson0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff16/2716821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs15916.11
David Montgomery9121.30
Jacob Saylors2115.50
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00
Jameson Williams1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown77702
Jameson Williams28400
Sam LaPorta34390
Kalif Raymond23130
Jahmyr Gibbs2260
David Montgomery0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.15
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.61