Closing spread
DET -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.071
- 35.2%Success rate45.0%
- -0.212EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.66CPOE+1.64
- 33.8%Third-down rate39.2%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.18Points / drive2.54
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/34 | 184 | 0 | 2 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Bond | 3 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/27 | 168 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jacob Saylors | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 7 | 70 | 2 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.15
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.61