Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
36
Model margin
+0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.131
- 38.8%Success rate39.5%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.183
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 38.8%Third-down rate32.4%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/34 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 10/19 | 73 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42