Closing spread
DET -1
Total
44
Model margin
+0.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.075
- 43.1%Success rate39.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.33CPOE-3.79
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.9%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.27
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/43 | 248 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Durham | 8 | 13 | 83 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 3 | 3 | 34 | 3 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Edwards | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 26/43 | 292 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 7 | 9 | 126 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 7 | 12 | 61 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.72
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.64