2013 · Week 6

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

31·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

44

Model margin

+0.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.075
  • 43.1%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.076
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.33CPOE-3.79
  • 42.9%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.27
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CLE @ DET10–34DET
2021 · W11DET @ CLE10–13CLE
2017 · W10CLE @ DET24–38DET
2009 · W11CLE @ DET37–38DET
2005 · W7DET @ CLE13–10DET
2001 · W2DET @ CLE14–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CLE
DETQ1 15:001041Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:53414Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:501136Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 3:2736Punt7–0
DETQ1 2:3235Punt7–0
CLEQ1 1:32874Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 12:5234Punt7–7
CLEQ2 11:58745Turnover7–7
DETQ2 8:44524Punt7–7
CLEQ2 6:381059Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 1:1630Punt7–14
CLEQ2 0:50652Field goal7–17
DETQ2 0:0800End of half7–17
CLEQ3 15:00314Punt7–17
DETQ3 12:56884Touchdown14–17
CLEQ3 8:5731Punt14–17
DETQ3 7:241041Turnover14–17
CLEQ3 1:403-9Punt14–17
DETQ4 14:49867Touchdown21–17
CLEQ4 10:35427Punt21–17
DETQ4 8:57526Field goal24–17
CLEQ4 6:04540Turnover24–17
DETQ4 4:36839Touchdown31–17
CLEQ4 2:011172End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4324841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush17784.60
Joique Bell7253.60
Mikel Leshoure294.50
Matthew Stafford263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kris Durham813830
Reggie Bush56571
Brandon Pettigrew44360
Joseph Fauria33343
Calvin Johnson38250
Joique Bell1280
Kevin Ogletree1250
Ryan Broyles0200
Pat Edwards0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden26/4329222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Benjamin14545.00
Willis McGahee10373.70
Chris Ogbonnaya5244.80
Brandon Weeden2105.00
MarQueis Gray11010.00
Bobby Rainey100.00
Josh Gordon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon791260
Jordan Cameron56640
Chris Ogbonnaya712611
Davone Bess23210
Greg Little25121
Gary Barnidge2360
Willis McGahee1120
Travis Benjamin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.72
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.64