2009 · Week 11

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

37·38

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapLions
  • -0.168EPA / play-0.169
  • 35.2%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -10.33CPOE-6.85
  • 32.5%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.11
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CLE @ DET10–34DET
2021 · W11DET @ CLE10–13CLE
2017 · W10CLE @ DET24–38DET
2013 · W6DET @ CLE31–17DET
2005 · W7DET @ CLE13–10DET
2001 · W2DET @ CLE14–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DET
CLEQ1 15:00853Field goal3–0
DETQ1 11:28468Field goal3–3
CLEQ1 9:13159Touchdown10–3
DETQ1 8:5636Punt10–3
CLEQ1 7:36772Touchdown17–3
DETQ1 4:0310Turnover17–3
CLEQ1 3:3926Touchdown24–3
DETQ1 2:52578Touchdown24–10
CLEQ1 0:3034Punt24–10
DETQ2 14:11761Touchdown24–17
CLEQ2 11:44727Punt24–17
DETQ2 7:46584Touchdown24–24
CLEQ2 5:011369Field goal27–24
DETQ2 0:0200End of half27–24
DETQ3 15:00615Punt27–24
CLEQ3 12:35839Punt27–24
DETQ3 7:501084Touchdown27–31
CLEQ3 2:4734Punt27–31
DETQ3 1:2831Safety29–31
CLEQ3 0:4135Punt29–31
DETQ4 14:053-2Punt29–31
CLEQ4 12:311579Touchdown37–31
DETQ4 5:44621Turnover37–31
CLEQ4 3:40622Punt37–31
DETQ4 1:46857Touchdown37–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn21/3330440
Phil Dawson1/11000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis24753.10
Chris Jennings10363.60
Josh Cribbs4164.00
Brady Quinn242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi5121151
Chansi Stuckey56761
Josh Cribbs22391
Chris Jennings56380
Greg Estandia13180
Jamal Lewis11130
Mike Furrey12100
Michael Gaines2251

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4342252

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith12453.80
Matthew Stafford372.30
Maurice Morris252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson7111611
Kevin Smith461041
Brandon Pettigrew68721
Aaron Brown11261
Bryant Johnson25230
Dennis Northcutt35170
Will Heller22121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.07