Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play-0.169
- 35.2%Success rate39.2%
- -0.266EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -10.33CPOE-6.85
- 32.5%Third-down rate35.8%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.23Points / drive1.11
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 21/33 | 304 | 4 | 0 |
| Phil Dawson | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 5 | 12 | 115 | 1 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 5 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Chris Jennings | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Estandia | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Gaines | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/43 | 422 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 11 | 161 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.07